R Venkat Subramanian of Kotak Securities feels that one may think that the markets are in the process of making a bottom. "But the news flow which has taken us this far, continues to remain as bad as it was. So from that point of view, it’s difficult and perhaps early to say that we have found a bottom."
But in terms of long-term investment point of view; he feels that at this point and from hereon, any downward fall in the market should represent a reasonable buying opportunity, particularly if one is looking to invest in this country for the next two-three years.
Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with R Venkat Subramanian:
Q: How do you map it from here? We went down to 12,800; we seem to be trying to hold that level. Do you think we will manage to work with that as a base?
A: We would like to think that we are in the process of making a bottom here but the news flow which has taken us this far, continues to remain as bad as it was. So from that point of view, it’s difficult and perhaps early to say that we have found a bottom. But in terms of long-term investment point of view; people who have been looking to come into India and have not been able to do in the last year because of valuations and the way the market is running up, I think at this point and from hereon, any downward fall in the market should represent a reasonable buying opportunity particularly if one is looking to invest in this country for the next two-three years because all the key teams that were driving us are reasonably long-term in nature and would remain in force. There will definitely be some challenges in some sectors. But by and large, the India story should continue to attract long-term investors and from that point of view, this could be a point where the long-term investor should start nibbling into the market.
Q: Global markets have not been top of mind; the markets been worried about crude, politics, the internals and outflows. If the global market situation takes a turn for the worse, do you think July could shape up to be as bad a month as June?
A: Under the current sentiment that we are in, any bad news is going to get exaggerated in our own market fall and from that point of view, that’s a risk. But we need to keep in mind that the US market, particularly the economy itself, is in such disarray that to expect this market will not fall is being irrationally optimistic. I think that market is headed lower and the conditions there are significantly different from what we are experiencing in this part of the world and Asia in general.
So to that extent, the day to day fall in US would perhaps impact the sentiment here. But I think we need to keep in mind that we are two different economies; beyond a certain stage, the reason why the US market is struggling will not have any economic impact on the Indian markets. Yes, it will fall, but I think from hereon any serious fall should be a buying opportunity for long-term investors irrespective of whether US market rallies or not.
Disclosure:
It is safe to assume that my clients & I may have an investment interest in the stocks/sectors discussed.
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