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*The Seminar was titled "Sensational Sensex - Retrospect & Prospect"*
*The Room was packed to full house and pin drop silence ensued while his
speech was on. Some interesting insights from RJ followed.*
*He gave a PowerPoint Presentation on India's GDP, India's Potential Savings
rate etc..and his talk had comparisons & similarities between markets and
wine/women.*
*POTENTIAL CATALYSTS for INDIA's GROWTH*
*RJ - Personal FACTS
1) I love Hyderabad and its Biryani. If my wife agrees, I wish to settle
down in Hyderabad.*
*2) RJ said that his father expired 3-4 weeks ago, so the tonsured head. His
father never asked him about his wealth, the only thing he always asked was
about his charity.*
*3) RJ does a lot of charity and contributes to educational NGOs, but said
he doesn't want to share or disclose it in the public.*
*4) His MOM always asks him to buy a flat or land, but RJ said he is 100%
invested into equity.*
*Synopsis of the seminar
**1) Worst Times are the BEST Times to buy.*
*2) Every Crisis presents an Opportunity*
*3) At 21 PE and with no scam, this market looks ripe for a Boom...when he
cannot SAY.*
*4) The only thing India has and what Russia and China do not have is
DEMOCRACY. He gave the example of Yukos oil Company in Russia which was
taken back by their Govt from the promoter.*
*5) RJ -"I LOVE WHISKY and WOMEN"*
*6) I am bearish on US markets and for them to SURVIVE, they have no CHOICE
but to Invest in the EMERGING MARKETS*
*7) RJ - BULLISH ON OIL, GAS and IT. FERTILISER IS A BIG "NO" from RJ*
*RJ On OIL, GAS
1) India imports 72% of itys total consumption of oil.*
*2) Oil imports constitute 10% of GDP*
*3) GAS supply to DOUBLE from 104 mmscmd to 260 mmscmd.*
*4) New GAS finds could BRING savings of about $148 Billion by FY 2012. Here
he quoted about Cairn finds and KG basin finds.*
*5) Gas could replace ~51 mmtpa (million metric tonnes per annum) which is ~
35% of the OIL consumption of India by FY 2012*
*POTENTIAL CATALYSTS for INDIA's GROWTH*
*1) Agriculture:*
*a) Large wastage needs to be prevented and logistic challenges (Crisis or
opportunity)
b) An agricultural Revolution is not only IMPERATIVE, it is INEVITABLE.
c) Seed companies continue to do well*
*2) INFRASTRUCTURE*
*RJ on Warren Buffet & USA
**1) WB gave a compounded yield of 23%.*
*2) Indians get scared if anything bad happens in USA. In my View, I
wouldn't give that much importance to USA. Their inflation is higher than
ours and they live in debt. Here he quotes
"I wouldn't believe if someone said S**T doesn't SMELL."*
*3) Last October (Oct '07) I had stressed very clearly the problems facing
US Economy. I also told that markets are peaking out and one has to be very
careful as correction was anticipated. I repeated the same thing after this
year's BUDGET also that buying now is dangerous.*
*RJ On Corporate Governance/ Managment*
*1) Corp governance is ZERO/junk in China. In comparison, India is far
better.*
*2) People did not invest in STERLITE saying this and that about the mgmt,
but the share moved from Rs. 40. Markets mostly focus on RESULTS.
*
*RJ - WHEN DO I SELL
When to sell a share depends upon one's need, the opportunity at hand and
experience. I sell ONLY when...*
*a) I need money for major expense.
b) when I find there is a BIGGER opportunity somewhere else
c) when I feel that in future, a company I invested in, has no higher
profit earnings potential or when the profits have peaked out.*
*RJ ON Markets/ Individual Scrips
1) Please do not ask me about Individual scrips. My lips are sealed and
SEBI's guidelines apply.*
*2) This is the FIRST significant TIME-WISE and PRICE-WISE correction*
*3) Believes India's a) economic growth to continue and b) the vast
underexposure to equity investments will correct over time.*
*4) Worried about rising Inflation, Housing and auto sector to bear the
BRUNT.*
*5) RNRL and RIL Gas issue, if settled, could act as a Positive trigger but
not so much as to start a big rally or a Boom again in the markets.*
*6) Markets perception is that the BOTTOM WILL BE MADE when the Election
DATES are announced. Though I personally wouldn't concur with this opinion,
if past experiences are taken into account, THE FIRST YEAR WHEN A NEW GOVT
COMES INTO POWER IS A GOLDEN ERA.*
*7) Markets before rising again might move in a narrow range for around 3-6
months forming a base.*
*8) Take your OWN decisions, Tips are Hazardous to your wealth.*
*9) Last October, (2007) I stressed very clearly the problems facing USA. I
also told that markets are peaking out and one has to be very careful as
correction was anticipated. I repeated the same thing after this year's
BUDGET that buying shares now was risky.*
*10) I will buy any share in any sector, but I always check if the future
looks bright and I do not view it from 1 year returns and I don't give
priority to it . I give PRIORITY to the FUTURE EARNINGS POTENTIAL of a
company.*
*Some of RJ's quotations
1) Karch karna aasaan hi, kum karna muskil hi*
*2) Markets and Women are the same...both are volatile, unexpected and he
has a FOUR letter word for them (no not what u think).....its LOVE.*
*3) Fall in love with your Wife, not with your Stocks*
*4) Respect the Markets and do MAKE mistakes, but see to it that you can
afford to stay in the markets even after the mistake.*
the same thing to IT Dept in India*
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