falling crude & UPA trust vote win that has
unfettered the govt at last! This rally could sustain
short term if crude continues to fall. However
sustainability is limited by high risk aversion.
Sustained bull market will be driven by signs of
EASING credit conditions in India & conviction on
reform trajectory, which are not visible yet.
Fears on slowdown, plus potential outliers eg Mid
East war (hence also oil), Fannie/ Freddie crisis,
make LT outlook uncertain.
Thus, USE this Bear Rally to prune weaker/ toppy
trading positions and grab stocks as they crack
to make trading profits, while picking up blue
chips for the core portfolio if Quality stocks* also
crack.
Intrinsic Value exercise: We have used a variety
of methodologies as relevant for each sector/
stock, to determine what could be intrinsic
value for each of the BSE 100 stocks that we cover.
Given such undulating markets, this would help
you decide, when to ENTER any of these stocks with
some conviction, depending on how close to
intrinsic value are various stocks, at any point.
* Unlike RoW, Indian Household & Corp sectors in
fine fettle; hence IF global macro turns & Fiscal
woes ease, India could rebound sharply.
Disclaimer: Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.Please consult your financial adivsor before taking any investment decision.
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